Dmitry Tymchuk, Information Resistance
March 14, 2014
March 14, 2014
After today’s statement from Moscow about their “readiness to protect Donetsk” from some “radical Right groups” the puzzle pieces came together in one picture. The geopolitical sociopath Putin has practically announced that after Crimea, [he] will lay his hands on all of the southeast of Ukraine.
I naively believed earlier that Ukraine has three choices: lose Crimea, lose the Southeast, as well as to lose independence and sovereignty. I was wrong. There are only two options according to the Kremlin: either give [us] half of Ukraine, or Putin will take Ukraine in its entirety.
At the same time, we have repeatedly pointed out that Kherson oblast [region] is the key to Crimea. Water, electricity, and gas are all transported through it [Kherson] into the Autonomous Republic of Crimea [ARC]. Without Kherson in their pocket, there is no point in contolling the ARC – without access to water, in 3 months the residents of Crimea will start having rallies to return to Ukraine.
But the question is, how to capture the south of Ukraine? Today, the presence of Russian troops in Crimea is quite staggering. But this so-called “policing” group that has a minuscule amount of heavy weaponry at its disposal, and is more suitable for the control of the occupied territory rather than military action against the Ukrainian army. It is problematic to transfer heavy weapons here: Putin himself claimed that there are no Russian troops in Crimea. Massive redeployment of tanks can no longer be concealed. Besides, Crimea itself is quite a cumbersome foothold for an offensive: it is necessary to block the narrow [Perekop] isthmus, as the Russians will begin having difficulties with the offensive.
Putin has no capacity for a mass landing from the sea – Russian army and the Navy is not ready for such operations. They can certainly gradually build up their capacity and means on the captured Ukrainian coast. But it may take weeks for the world to clearly see that Russia has begun a full-scale war against Ukraine.
Under these conditions the Kremlin has already created the so-called “Putin’s southern belt.” This [belt] includes 19,000 troops in Crimea and 1,500 military personnel (mostly special forces, as well as 2,000 Cossacks) in Transnistria. But this [military] power can be used to invade and take control of Kherson, Odessa and Mykolaiv regions of Ukraine, causing major damage to the east of Ukraine.
It is in this - in the capture of the entire South-East – that is the meaning of the picture that we see today.
Destabilizing the situation in Donetsk and other eastern Ukrainian cities via “Putin’s tourists,” the Kremlin prepared the background for this strike. Specifically, three strikes. Judging by the concentration of Russian troops near the Ukrainian borders, the invasion will occur through Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhia. Since the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not prepare the defensive lines in these areas, it will be an unstoppable blitzkrieg by Putin.
The actions of Russian troops concentrated in the north and northeast – in Belarus and north of Kursk remain in question. Theoretically, it would be foolish for Putin to simultaneously attack three eastward directions along with the Chernihiv-Pryluky and Kyiv line – too much of a dispersion of forces. At the same time, again given the lack of defensive capabilities in Ukraine, all this complex of offensive actions may not have any problems during implementation.
Issue with the date is also obvious. Either on the night of the 16th to 17th of March 2014 (immediately after the referendum in Crimea), or one day later. Indeed, Putin has already created the “right” situation in the Southeast – they can invade [Crimea] even now to “protect their fellow countrymen.” Idling their troops, centered in current positions any further does not make sense.
In this situation, the main thing we are interested in is whether Ukraine and the international community are able to to thwart these plans of the newfound Führer? I don’t have an answer to this question. Just like you, I can only believe that all is not lost yet, and at the same time pack my backpack and reread books on guerrilla warfare tactics. I hope that does not need to come in handy.